Friday, January 18, 2019
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Wheat Extends Drop Before USDA Report on Supply Outlook

Wheat fell for a third straight day, the longest slump in a month, on speculation that a government report will show ample global inventories even as drought erodes output in the U.S. Soybeans dropped, while corn rose.

World inventories of wheat at the end of this month probably will be 186.79 million metric tons, 5.8 percent more than a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey showed. Production will reach an all-time high in the 2014-2015 crop year, led by record harvests in China and India, researcher Informa Economics estimates. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release forecasts at noon in Washington today.

"The trade is looking at the expectations for the new crop in the report, and it shows no reason to worry," Arlan Suderman, a senior market analyst at Water Street Solutions Inc. in Peoria, Illinois, said in a telephone interview. "USDA will probably come in with numbers that will be seen as quite adequate."

Wheat futures for July delivery fell 1 percent to $7.2775 a bushel at 10:10 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, heading for the longest slide since April 11. Prices are up 20 percent this year as U.S. crop conditions worsened and tensions escalated between Russia and Ukraine, two of the world's largest exporters.

Global production probably will reach a record 713.1 million metric tons in the year that starts next month, Memphis, Tennessee-based Informa said in a report to clients on May 2. Inventories probably will drop just 0.5 percent over the next year to 185.74 million tons, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Corn futures for July delivery advanced 0.2 percent to $5.175 a bushel in Chicago, up 3.6 percent for the week. Soybean futures for July delivery fell 0.4 percent to $14.6425 a bushel.

Global soybean stockpiles may total 69.74 million tons on Sept. 1, before climbing to a record 79.68 million tons a year later, the Bloomberg survey showed. Corn inventories were estimated at 158.11 million tons at the end of this season and 162.2 million by the end of the next marketing year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Megan Durisin in Chicago at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Steve Stroth, Joe Richter


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Contributing Editors

  • adrian muller has conducted seminars for the chicago board of trade, including a key series in 1999 which cautioned about a top in the equity markets (see his article “top experts and statistics on the dow”). adrian muller has appeared on cable tv financial programs with analysis on the futures markets and equity market directional forecasts. he has been quoted in barron's, the wall street journal, and futures magazine.

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