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what to watch definitions

treasuries:

tic long-term purchases - difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by us citizens and us long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period (released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends)

http://www.treasury.gov/pages/default.aspx

stocks:

fomc statement - it's the primary tool the fomc uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. it contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. (scheduled 8 times per year)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/

federal funds rate - interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the federal reserve to other banks overnight. short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future (scheduled 8 times per year)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/

fomc meeting minutes - it's a detailed record of the fomc's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates (meets 8 times a year jan/feb/april/may/july/aug./oct./nov.)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/

fed chairman bernanke testifies - due to testify on the economic outlook before the senate budget committee, in washington dc (often follows fomc meeting minutes)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/
 
federal budget balance - difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month (released monthly, usually on the eighth business day after the month ends)

http://www.treasury.gov/pages/default.aspx

gdp:

prelim gdp q/q-annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy (released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends)

http://www.bea.gov/

advance gdp q/q-annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy (released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends)

http://www.bea.gov/


inflationary indicators:

producer price index m/m - change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers (released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends)

http://www.dol.gov/

core cpi m/m - change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy (released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends)

http://www.bls.gov/

employment cost index (eci) - report of economic series detailing the changes in the costs of labor for businesses in the united states economy. (released quarterly)

http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
core personal consumption expenditures ( core pce) - change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy (released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends)

http://www.bea.gov/

us employment:
 a. first friday of the month @ 8:30am
 b. initial claims each thurs @ 8:30am

adp non-farm employment change - (automatic data processing) provides payroll services to many corporations in the us. they use the data collected from their customers to derive the overall employment estimations (released monthly, about 2 days after the month ends)

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

unemployment claims - the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week (released weekly, 5 days after the week end)

http://www.dol.gov/

non-farm employment change - change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry (released monthly, usually on the first friday after the month ends)

http://www.bls.gov/

unemployment rate - percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month (released monthly, usually on the first friday after the month ends)

http://www.bls.gov/

average hourly earnings m/m-change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry (released monthly, usually on the first friday after the month ends)

http://www.bls.gov/

retail:

retail sales - change in the total value of sales at the retail level (released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

core retail sales m/m - change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles (released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

core durable goods orders m/m-change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items (released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

durable goods - change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods (released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

consumer reports:

cb consumer confidence index - level of a composite index based on surveyed households ( released monthly, on the last tuesday of the current month)

http://www.conference-board.org/

prelim uom consumer sentiment - survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions

http://www.umich.edu/

revised uom consumer sentiment - the 'previous' listed is the 'actual' from the preliminary release and therefore the 'history' data will appear unconnected. there are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – preliminary and revised. the preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact

http://www.umich.edu/

housing:

existing home sales - annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction (released monthly, about 23 days after the month ends)

http://www.realtor.org/

new home sales - annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month (released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

housing starts - annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month (released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

building permits-annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month (released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends)

http://www.census.gov/

pending home sales - change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction (released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends)

http://www.realtor.org/

s&p/cs composite-20 hpi y/y - change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas (released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends)

http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us

industrial production:

ism manufacturing pmi (purchasing managers index)- survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories (released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends)

http://www.ism.ws/

ism non-manufacturing pmi - index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories

http://www.ism.ws/

empire state manufacturing index - level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in new york state (released monthly, around the middle of the current month)

http://www.newyorkfed.org/index.html

philly fed manufacturing index - level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in philadelphia (released monthly, around the middle of the current month)

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm

beige book “summary of commentary on current economic conditions”- anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 federal reserve banks regarding local economic conditions in their district (8 times per year, 2 weeks before each fomc meeting)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/

productivity report

trade balance report - difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month (released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends)

http://www.bea.gov/

import prices m/m - change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically (released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends)

http://www.bls.gov/

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